AIIA

Mr Tony Walker: The World in 2011

A new year has opened amid financial distress in the US and Western Europe, with the American military struggling for success in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, and with China fast emerging as the big new global power.  This is a year in which the West's ability to sustain its old dominance will be tested in many ways.  Beijing will flex its economic and military muscles.  Other rising powers will assert their influence. Unscrupulous regimes from North Korea and Iran to Venezuela and Sudan will seek to take advantage of any weakness in Washington.  The Middle East will remain a huge challenge with a risk of fresh conflict.  Nuclear-armed Pakistan will keep President Obama awake at night as it continues to implode. Can the Korean peninsula avoid a new war?  Will Sudan separate peacefully?  Will the Euro zone disintegrate?  What will the tenth anniversary of 9/11 bring to this troubled outlook?  Most important for us, how is Australia positioned in the global context? To place these and other issues in perspective we welcome the return to AIIAV of Mr Tony Walker.  No Australian international journalist has devoted more time to reporting, analysing and commenting on global issues.  In the course of more than 30 years as a foreign correspondent, variously for the 'Financial Times', 'The Age' and now as International Editor of the 'AFR', Mr Walker has interviewed many of the famous figures who have shaped today's geopolitical outlook.  He has reported many historic events and gained a first-hand feel for the ways of the world from bases in Beijing, Cairo, Washington, DC, and elsewhere.  He is the co-author of a biography of Yasser Arafat and is working on a history of Australian war correspondents.

Ambassador Dr Martin Uhomoibhi: Nigeria: African Giant

Australians generally have limited understanding of Africa.  The most populous country on that continent is Nigeria whose population of 152 million, split about evenly between Moslems and Christians, makes it the seventh most populous country in the world.  With a political history since independence in 1960 punctuated by periods of military rule, the more recent restoration of democracy and subsequent economic reforms has begun to pay significant dividends.  Included in a group of countries referred to as the ‘next eleven’ – those, together with the BRICs, expected to be amongst the world’s largest economies later this century - Nigeria has been enjoying impressive economic growth over the last few years.  A country rich in oil resources, Nigeria is the world’s twelfth largest producer of oil and the eighth largest exporter. This event is an opportunity to gain an appreciation of Nigeria’s growing importance in global affairs from that country’s most senior diplomat, Dr Uhomoibhi, who will discuss Nigeria’s foreign policy in contemporary international politics.  This insight will undoubtedly provide a point of entry for those seeking a broader understanding of the potentiality of Africa as this century unfolds. Dr Uhomoibhi was educated at the University of Ibadan, Nigeria, and the University of Oxford, where he received his doctorate in modern history and international relations.  After lecturing for some years at the University of Ibadan, he joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1984, where he has served in Belgrade, New York, and Addis Ababa, as well as various posts in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Abuja.  Prior to his current appointment in 2010 as the Permanent Secretary of the Nigerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he was the Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Geneva and Ambassador to Switzerland.

Ms Maria Jockel - Australia’s Migration Program: International Education and Shaping the Nation

Australia’s Migration Program offers significant opportunities and challenges in shaping the future of our nation.  It underpins much of our economic prosperity by adding to the skills base of the country.  It remains, however, a topic of much contention, and often focuses on dramatic incidents, such as the arrival on our shores of new boat loads of people fleeing persecution.  A significant part of the program, which receives much less public discussion, is that of international education. Indeed, international education plays a critical role in the Australian economy, with income from foreign students contributing a significant and increasing share of the tertiary sector’s revenue, making the education sector now Australia’s third largest and Victoria’s largest single ‘export earner’.  Importantly, international education is a potential source of new skilled migrants, with many overseas students seeking to stay on after they complete their studies.  The regulatory and policy framework underpinning the migration program as it impacts on international education is, however, under considerable strain.  The need to balance a range of competing issues, interests and concerns, to government, education providers, students and the Australian community in general remains a perennial challenge.  So where to from here? Maria Jockel is currently leader of Russell Kennedy’s immigration law team.  In her current and former roles, Ms Jockel has contributed to shaping the future of immigration law in Australia, having advised on sensitive government policy and legal matters at state and federal levels.  She acts for international and Australian corporations, bringing skilled personnel to Australia to meet labour force needs.  Ms Jockel also advises international education providers on requirements of the National Code and regulatory compliance dealing with student visa matters.  She represents business, skilled and family migrants, advising in all aspects of temporary and permanent residency.

Mr David Forde - The Palestinian homeland dilemma and the disappearing two-state solution

David Forde was born and educated in Dublin, Ireland and has lived in Australia since 1992. He is employed in the public service and married with two boys and another one on the way. He first became interested in the issue of Palestine and Israel when he served in 1982 with the Irish Army in South Lebanon as part of the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL). He again served at various stages up till 1990. David established and is co-convener of an advocacy group within the Australian Labor Party known as, Labor 4A Just Palestine, which was formed due to lack of debate on this issue within the Australian Labor Party. He has a firm view that resolution to this conflict will lead to greater regional and world peace, including on issues relating to terrorism. He believes that Australians need to take a balanced view based on international law and UN Resolutions. David’s presentation is based on a trip to the region earlier this year that took in Lebanon, Jordan, Occupied Palestinian Territories (including Gaza) and Israel.

Prof Andrew O'Neil - Developments on the Korean Peninsula

Assessing North Korea’s intentions—and its grand strategy more generally—remains one of the toughest intelligence challenges for those working in government. Similarly, oceans of ink have been spiltt by scholars seeking to explain Pyongyang’s behaviour and how it affects the security dynamics of East Asia. While much of the literature is characterised by a default assumption that key actors in the region will cooperate to “manage” North Korea, recent developments suggest cause for renewed pessimism about the situation on the Korean peninsula. A major succession process within the DPRK with real potential for crisis, growing hostility within South Korea towards Pyongyang, and North Korea’s emergence as a nuclear-armed regional power provide the ingredients for a period of significant instability on the peninsula over the coming decade. Andrew O’Neil is Professor of International Relations and Director of the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University. Andrew is the author of a wide range of journal articles and book chapters in the areas of security and strategy and is the author of Nuclear Proliferation in Northeast Asia: The Quest for Security (Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2007). Before joining Griffith in January 2010, Andrew was Associate Professor in the School of Political and International Studies at Flinders University. Prior to taking up his first academic post in 2000, he worked as a strategic analyst with Australia’s Defence Intelligence Organisation as part of its North Asia and Global Issues branch. In 2009 Andrew was appointed editor-in-chief of the Australian Journal of International Affairs, Australia’s leading scholarly outlet for International Relations research.

Dr Ian Hall - Does India Matter? (Nov 1 2010)

Dr Ian Hall spoke at Harris Terrace in Brisbane on the 1st of November to members and friends of the Queensland Branch of the AIIA.  We are pleased to present a podcast of this presentation.

Abstract

In a famous article published in Foreign Affairs in 1999, Gerald Segal asked: “Does China Matter?”. His answer was that China mattered, but not in the way that Westerners often think it does, and – more importantly – not as much as they think it does. For Segal, China was destined to remain a second-rank power of limited military power, a far less profitable market than is commonly assumed, and a negligible source of innovative ideas. This paper – with apologies to Segal – poses the same question of India. By the middle of this century, India is predicted to be, if not a superpower, then a great power playing an indispensible role in the Asia-Pacific region.

About Ian Hall

Ian Hall is a Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia. His publications include The International Thought of Martin Wight (2006), British International Thinkers from Hobbes to Namier (edited with Lisa Hill, 2009), The Dilemmas of Decline: British Intellectuals and World Politics, 1945-75 (2011), and a number of essays on international relations theory, diplomacy, global governance, and Indian foreign policy.

Dr Hall has contributed an article to the newest AIIA Policy Commentary on Indian Ocean issues. This booklet is available free to all members at AIIA events.

Tom Switzer - The US Mid-Terms (Nov 9 2010)

Tom Switzer spoke at Harris Terrace in Brisbane on the 9th of November to members and guests of the Queensland Branch of the AIIA. We are pleased to present a podcast of this presentation. Abstract Conservatives say Barack Obama's ideological overreach -- big spending stimulus, universal health care, automobile/bank bailouts -- has ignited an angry backlash from Middle America. Liberals say Obama and congressional Democrats have failed to prosecute a truly left-liberal agenda in Washington during the past two years. Both explanations are limited. The repudiation of President Obama and the Democrats has more to do with America's spiritual doldrums. In 2008, Americans embraced Obama's optimistic vision of change and renewal. But in the two years since, he has failed to meet the lofty expectations that the public, the media and he himself set. Polls consistently show a significant majority of Americans think the U.S. is heading down the wrong path. Hence the rapid mood swings within the electorate, epitomised in Obama's fall from adulation to anger within only a few months in 2009. Of course, America has undergone crises before, but it has never endured one quite like this. It is not just that the US military is stretched to breaking point. Nor is it just that the US is mired in near double-digit unemployment and skyrocketing levels of debt. It is more to do with whether Americans will gracefully accept a lesser role in an increasingly multi-polar world. About Tom Switzer Tom Switzer is a research associate at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney where he also teaches undergraduate courses in American politics and Australian political and diplomatic history. He is also editor of The Spectator Australia and a research fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs in Melbourne. In 2009 he was a candidate in the Liberal party primary for the federal seat of Bradfield in northern Sydney. In 2008 he was senior adviser to former federal Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson. Before that, he was opinion page editor for The Australian (2001-08), an editorial writer at The Australian Financial Review (1998-2001) and an assistant editor at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC (1995-98). He has also contributed articles to the Wall Street Journal (US, Asia and Europe), International Herald Tribune, the American Interest, Far Eastern Economic Review, the American Review, ABC The Drum, the American Conservative, the American Enterprise, the Age, the Sydney Morning Herald, the Australian Literary Review, Courier Mail, Newcastle Herald, Quarterly Essay and Quadrant magazine. He has a Masters in International Relations in 1994 and a Bachelor of Arts in History (First Class Honours) in 1993, both at the University of Sydney.